Beyond the Box Score: FanPosts

Tim Lincecum vs. Felix Hernandez

25 — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 17:38:51 -0000

Myself and my friend Chandler were talking about who is better and we have been at a stale-mate. So, I’m going to break down stats, age, injury issues, pitch quality, repertoire, etc.

Tim Lincecum’s player page:
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=453311
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/linceti01.shtml

Felix Hernandez:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=433587
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernafe02.shtml

Age and Years in the Majors

Age:
Lincecum: 24
Hernandez: 22

Years in the Majors:
Lincecum: 2nd year (Played 2/3 of his first season)
Hernandez: 4th year (Played 1/3 of his first season)

Hernandez came into the league at age 19, far before he was ready. His stuff was ready, but he wasn’t ready mentally or physically. Hernandez didn’t have the stamina, injury resistance, or mindset of a major league pitcher when he first came up. He, like many young pitchers, succeeded in the beginning of his career due to lack of scouting reports and unfamiliarity, finishing 2005 with an ERA of 2.67. But in 2006, American League hitters figured him out, and Felix finished 2006 with an ERA of 4.52. Tim Lincecum as well came into the majors with quality pitches, but not quite ready mentally. Unlike Felix, he ended his first season, in 2007, with an ERA of 4.00, but has come back in his second year, vastly improved and tuned, fielding a current ERA of 2.68. In the past two seasons however, Felix has brought his ERA to 3.92 at the end of 2007, and currently is at 3.04.

Repertoire and Pitch Quality

Tim Lincecum’s best pitches (fastball and curveball) are slightly more dominant than Felix’s, but Felix has a deeper quality in his repertoire. Lincecum has slowly been improving his changeup and if he can perfect it, he will be just as deep as Felix. They both top out around 101 with their fastball, but Lincecum has better movement on his fastball and generally averages around 2-3 MPH faster than Felix, especially since Felix tends to throw his two-seemer more often due to it’s superior movement from his 4-seemer. Felix has a wide-variety of good pitches, but none as dominant as Lincecum’s dynamic duo. Lincecum’s curveball and fastball, may be the filthiest duo of pitcher in the game right now.

Injury Issues

Everyone who hasn’t read Sports Illustrated’s article on Tim Lincecum still questions his durability. To the average eye, a 5’11 170 lb person throwing 101 MPH does not seem normal or good for the body. In fact, throwing a baseball is considered by many as the most violent act on the human body in sports. Yet, Tim Lincecum’s perfect, albeit odd-looking, mechanics have kept him out of health issues his entire career. He never comes to a stop in his motion, which keeps the momentum flowing through his entire windup, taking pressure off the arm. On the other hand, Felix Hernandez had to be placed on the 15-day DL earlier this season with an ankle injury. Both appear to have solid mechanics and neither should sustain any serious injuries throughout their respective careers.

Stats

See the 2nd links under each name at the top of the note for detailed stats. Lincecum currently (2008 season) has a better record, ERA, more Ks, more Ks/9 , less BB/9, better Whip, and less H/9. Tim is statiscally better in almost every category, but not by much. Felix has similar stats, but not quite as good as Lincecum’s. Lincecum has also been unfortunate enough to have the bullpen blow 4 wins for him, and Felix has been no luckier.

Some short stats:

2008:

Tim Lincecum: 12-3, 2.68 ERA, 175 Ks, through 157.7 innings.
Felix Hernandez: 7-7, 3.04 ERA, 127 Ks, through 136 innings.

Last 6 games:

Tim Lincecum: 2-2, 3.86 ERA, 45 Ks, through 42 innings.
Felix Hernandez: 1-2, 3.58 ERA, 36 Ks, through 32.7 innings.

We should also look at the quality of teams they play and how they fair against those teams. Lincecum clearly plays in an easier league and a much easier division, but that appears to be misleading. I looked at how well they preformed against the best hitting teams in their respective leagues. Texas, New York Yankees, Boston and Detroit for the AL and Cubs, St. Louis, Philly, and Colorado for the NL.

Hernandez in 9 games against those AL teams went 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 43 K’s.
Lincecum in 9 games against those NL teams went 6-1 with a 2.07 ERA and 65 K’s.

My Final Conclusion

I think both players are incredible pitchers with incredible futures, but with Tim Lincecum’s more sufficient progress, better stats, and his current contention for a Cy Young (in his 2nd year), I give Lincecum the edge.

Now, Chandler and I are both biased to a certain extent on this topic, so I would appreciate hearing other people’s opinions on the matter.

via photos-f.ak.facebook.com

via photos-d.ak.facebook.com

Giants: 100+ innings without a home run

jcb9 — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 23:15:10 -0000

Following today's loss to the Padres, the Giants have gone 102 innings without hitting a single home run. The last one came off Bengie Molina's bat on July 22nd.

As a Giants fan, this seems sort of impressive in a perverse sense. But I have no idea how rare it is to go so long without a home run, and my Google-fu is failing me. So I'm turning to you guys: how long has it been since a team has gone over 100 innings without any home runs? What's the longest any team has gone in recent years?

Collecting Pitch F/X data

manzell — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:57:45 -0000

Hello,

I'm hoping someone can assist me in collecting Pitch F/X data. I'm familiar with the ability to "download" some data via http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/, but I want to do something a little crazier, such as "all pitches, 2007 and 2008" that are stored and then dump them into an SQL database.

1 - has anyone already done such a thing?

2 - If not, what would be the simplest way to go about things?

Thanks!

All-Star Snubs & Flubs

NYCowboy — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 17:55:06 -0000

Did Manny deserve to make the starting lineup? What about Jeter? And Ichiro too! These are some of the players who will be starting in the All-Star game based on reputation - we'll call them the flubs. And read about which players we thing were snubbed.

Well the Major League Baseball All-Star team has been announced, so now it’s time to start complaining about who was elected, and who was snubbed.

I’ve never been a big fan of the rule that states every team has to have at least one representative. Why? Either you are an all-star or you are not. Now that this game decides which league will have home field in the World Series, shouldn’t the best players be playing? Evan Longoria doesn’t make the team because Detroit has to be represented by Carlos Guillen. I don’t believe the fans should be voting either, as that turns it into one big popularity contest. How many Red Sox, Yankee, and Cubs players can we put on the team?

Starting with the American League, what were the players thinking when they elected Jason Varitek to the game? He’s batting .215 for crying out loud! He has 15 hits in his last 117 at-bats. A.J. Pierzynski is certainly a more deserving candidate and Dioner Navarro, is having a solid season.

David Ortiz being voted in by the fans wasn’t such a great selection either. He will have missed six weeks worth of game action by the time games resume after the All-Star break, but that situation took care of itself when Milton Bradley was asked to replace him in the game.

Michael Young deserved the starting nod over Derek Jeter, but he still made the team. Shortstop is not so strong in the American League, so we will leave Jeter on the team.

Manny Ramirez is living off reputation and a hot first six weeks. He’s done very little since Ortiz went down. Jermaine Dye is certainly a more deserving selection.

Not much to complain about with the pitching selections. They seemed to have gotten it right, although they did lean heavily on closers and not so much on starters.

Read the National League Snubs & Flubs and the rest of the news around the majors here at The Fantasy Sports Forum

Pitches Towards Outs

jscape2000 — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:39:50 -0000

fpiliere over at SaberScouting is doing some work trying to determine a pitcher's dominance by tracking what percentage of each pitcher's pitches lead to outs.

I've tossed in my two cents over there, but when it comes to anything more advanced than long division, my two cents aren't worth that much. If it's the kind of thing anyone here is interested in, I'm sure Frank would love the help.

Link!

Talk About a Tough Luck Loss

bravesooner10 — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 08:23:02 -0000

Originally Posted On Tomahawk Blog

Michael Jordan beat the Jazz with the flu. Tiger Woods won the U.S. Open with a broken leg and a bad knee. Kirk Gibson beat the A’s with two bad legs. I beat my brother one-on-one using only my left hand, and now the Dodgers beat the Angels without recording a single hit.

The Angels’ Jered Weaver and Jose Arredondo combined for a no-hitter, but still lost 1-0 to the Dodgers on Saturday night.

Or did they?

Actually, according to a rule instituted by MLB’s Committee for Statistical Accuracy in 1991......(read more)

The Real Town Hall

Splice Today — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:09:52 -0000

Friends don’t let friends argue about politics, but baseball disputes are completely in-bounds. Barack Obama and John McCain ought to merge the two subjects.

By Russ Smith

From www.splicetoday.com

Sunday morning, I clicked on David Broder’s Washington Post op-ed, “More Debates Would Bolster Political Dialogue” and was pleasantly surprised by the content. Nothing against Broder, who through the decades has seemed like a fairly reasonable fellow, but his good-government opinions are usually kind of dull. A lot of substance, plenty of on-the-record quotes (and humility that toxic partisans like The New York Times’ Frank Rich might consider emulating) but dull. Nevertheless, the thrust of this particular Broder piece was on the money: while his colleagues were writing and re-writing Hillary Clinton speculation columns, lost in the shuffle was John McCain’s challenge to Barack Obama that they hold 10 town-hall meetings across the country and talk to voters and each other. Tim Russert, Sean Hannity and Chris Matthews would be invited only as spectators, and they’d probably decline due to the lack of attention.

Obama’s camp claims they’re considering the proposal but it’s doubtful they’ll accede to McCain’s wishes: the GOP nominee, lousy on camera in canned network-sanctioned debates, needs a curveball to alter the dynamics of the election, which clearly favor the Illinois senator. On the other hand, if Obama bats down the idea, his aura as the “candidate of change” might take a dent. The following is a pipedream, but what I think would really be radical in presidential politics is if the two of them met five times, before the national conventions, at different baseball stadiums in mutually-agreed upon cities. No press allowed, no photo-ops, just Obama and McCain sitting in a skybox, and taking in games, gabbing about baseball or whatever else comes to mind.

Every four years editorialists natter on about the importance of a “civil” campaign, and this is one way to further that goal. The two senators don’t know each other well, but as any baseball fan can tell you, during the course of a game two acquaintances can, in an isolated setting, forge a friendship while discussing and debating America’s favorite sport. After these three-hour—remaining for all nine innings would be a condition—I find it hard to believe they’d allow their strategists to embark on what could be the nastiest presidential race since, well, 2004.

Say the two of them started off this week in Detroit (possible swing-state of Michigan), watching the disappointing Tigers take on Ozzie Guillen’s rejuvenated White Sox. The current baseball topics would be endless: Chipper Jones’ astounding batting average (.420 as of Monday morning); the wisdom of Joba Chamberlain joining the Yanks starting rotation instead of inheriting Mariano Rivera’s role as a dominant closer; the introduction of limited replays on disputed home run calls by umps; how the Cubs are going to blow it again late in the season; and the ramifications of amateur pugilist Coco Crisp setting off a brawl last Thursday night by charging the mound after the Rays’ excellent starter James Shields plunked the Sox outfielder on the leg.

Baseball, as has not been observed by enough politicians and the journalists who cover them, is a cultural equalizer, a plain fact that both Obama and McCain ought to realize. Shysterball’s Craig Calcaterra made a good point in an email over the weekend that neither of the candidates appear to be even mild baseball fans (unlike Rudy Giuliani and George Bush), and so they’d drift off to non-sports conversations, not unlike businessmen clogging up the good seats via corporate season tickets. But, at least by my reckoning, that’d be okay too, as long as they spent time together without the pressure of “gotcha” media dogs hounding them. Calcaterra wrote: “The bigger question: Could Obama name all the guys in the White Sox’s rotation, and could McCain name that of the D’Backs? I’ll admit that I’m leaning Obama, but if McCain knew who Micah Owings was, I’d have to think hard.”

That remark was made in jest, of course, but does address the very real tonic that a diversion like baseball (or sports generally) can have on friends who refrain from political debate because it just gets too incendiary. Calcaterra added: “In my own experience writing my blog, I’ve found that I can say the most outlandish, mean-spirited things possible about a baseball player or team, but the reaction to that pales compared to even the most innocuous political thoughts I insert into a post. Most folks I know would rather talk about baseball than politics, but in their heart they know one matters and one, ultimately, does not.”

David Pinto, who mans the go-to blog Baseball Musings, agrees that “people take politics more seriously than sports,” and though he’s got definite opinions about national affairs, he makes his forum a politics-free zone. As do other blogs, such as Joy of Sox, Allan Wood's blog with a message at the top of his page that reads “Iraq War Resisters In Canada—Let Them Stay.” On the other side, there’s Mr. Baseball Crank, a diehard conservative who writes a lot about politics but at the top his homepage gives readers the option to hit the “Baseball-Only Content” option. On the left side of the site, there are three quotes, old chestnuts from Tug McGraw and Branch Rickey, sandwiched by a famous proclamation of Winston Churchill’s.

(A digression: I agree with a lot of people that the Yanks’ de facto boss, Hank Steinbrenner, is a loudmouth borderline lunatic, but he had a great, and withering, response to Johnny Damon’s complaint to the media that moving Joba to the starting rotation was a blunder worthy of his old man. The New Boss said: “I love Johnny Damon as a player and a person, and he’s doing a really good job now. But let’s be honest here, he’s not Branch Rickey. Johnny is a player, and as players, they all need to let the brain trust do the thinking and talking. They players just need to play and to worry about winning games.” Translated: You might be a millionaire, but your brain is the size of a peanut, so shut the fuck up.”)

When I attend a game with friends, politics is verboten, and I tell my McCain-backing 13-year-old to shut his yap on that subject and stick to balls and strikes and the menacing glare of Jonathan Papelbon. Last week, four of us went to Camden Yards to see the O’s and the Sox and the name Obama wasn’t mentioned once; instead two of the guys, confirmed Orioles partisans, looked forward to the day when the park wouldn’t be called “Fenway Park South” and Manny Ramirez might think twice before saying, as he did upon hitting his 500th homer there, that he was glad he could attain that feat “in front of my fans.”

Here’s an example of why I think McCain and Obama (and the electorate) might profit from the five-games plan proposed above. A buddy of mine in New York is close to Jonathan Tasini, the well-known union organizer in that state (he ran against Hillary Clinton in the ’06 Democratic senate primary) and though Tasini’s a Yanks fan, we’ve exchanged good-natured emails on baseball. Jonathan wrote the other day about the value of sports in today’s politically charged culture: “I’ve always been amazed at the reaction by too many people on the progressive/left side who have disdain for people like me who love sports as if it’s a waste of time. As a union member (particularly UAW), I’ve always thought that I can talk to just about anyone, anywhere, about sports. It’s an entry point and a bridge—not intentionally but naturally—no matter what people think about [political] issues.”

I can’t let this opportunity slip to throw in a few words about the Sox-Rays brawl last Thursday night. First, why Jon Lester was suspended for five games is beyond me: yes, he hit a couple of Rays but wasn’t ejected from the game. Two, Coco Crisp was spoiling for a fight and charging the mound after Shields intentionally hit him in the leg was overreaction; what I don’t understand is why Shields would retaliate against the Sox outfielder in thesecond inning, knowing he could be tossed. It resulted in the Rays’ bullpen being taxed and a loss in a game between the sudden rivals. A more seasoned pitcher, say Josh Beckett or Mike Mussina, would wait until later in the game to exact revenge and stick up for his teammates.

New York’s Daily News runs a terrific blog called Subway Squawkers, in which a Yanks fan (Lisa Swan) squares off against a Mets booster (Jon Lewin) in a good-natured back-and-forth. I can’t stand the Yanks, but Swan is an interesting read: last year, she lobbied for Joe Torre’s dismissal long before a lot of the beat writers, and in the past has defended Alex Rodriguez when no one else would. Last weekend, she skipped the Crisp/Shields/Gomes/Crawford/Casey pile-up and instead commented on the very weird dugout scuffle between Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis that occurred a few innings after the main event of the evening. Reportedly, Manny was pissed about Youkilis chucking stuff in the dugout after striking out on a disputed call and tempers flared. Not a big deal in my book; the Yankees of the late 70s hated each other (that means you, Mr. October) and were a lot more interesting than the bland team that dominated the last half of the 90s.

Swan wrote: “[W]hat I find fascinating is that Ramirez, who so often draws attention to himself by posing at home plate after a homer, decided to be the self-appointed enforcer on Youkilis. Mind you, I actually kind of like Manny [a huge and honest admission from someone who follows every inning of every Yanks game], but still. Why was a showboater like him the one to say something? Manny being the one to do it [instead of the more sober Mike Lowell] is like Paris Hilton telling Britney Spears to stop being a publicity hound.”

See what just happened? After opening up about politics I ran aground when thinking over the dozens of baseball dramas played out in the past week, which is why someone like Jonathan Tasini and me would never be seen at the same political rally but would have a delightful time at Yankee Stadium or any other park. And that’s why I think McCain and Obama would be smart to flummox the media and not play by its rules during this long general election campaign. Go to Coors Field, fellas, have a few drinks and get to know each other. It’s possible the country will be better off no matter who wins.

Just Watch the Game

Splice Today — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:07:09 -0000

The sports media’s fascination with the private lives of athletes has reached a new, and disgusting, level.

From www.splicetoday.com

Early in March, I immodestly proposed that President Bush grant amnesty to all baseball players implicated in the still-ongoing steroids/PED “scandal,” reasoning that the excruciating litany of sanctimonious opinions issued by sportswriters—who were complicit, after all, in looking the other way at bulked-up athletes like Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in the “magical” ’98 season—was just too much for a baseball fan to bear. Spitballs, greenies, truckloads of booze in the clubhouses, sharpened cleats, betting on games, cocaine, and, most egregiously, the refusal of owners and players to countenance non-white players until 1947, all of this is evidence of an imperfect sport. Had reporters back in the 1920s—when they were paid about the same as most ballplayers—told all the salacious stories they knew about Babe Ruth (who was breaking the law by drinking during the asinine failed “experiment” of Prohibition) it’s quite possible he’d have been booted out the game and wouldn’t, to this day, remain an American icon.

New York’s Daily News has been on a tear of late in its campaign to crush Roger Clemens, issuing daily revelations of his reported adultery and pathological hypocrisy, and the rest of the sports media has been glad to climb aboard the bulldozer aimed at the now smaller-than-life Texan. This is not a defense of Clemens’ apparently reckless and extraordinarily selfish lifestyle—and the allegations of his affair with a teenager when he was a 28-year-old Red Sox pitcher are truly creepy—but I’d rather not know the details. Unfortunately, if you follow baseball as closely as I do, in particular the ups and downs of the Red Sox (thumbs up) and Yankees (big toes down), it’s impossible to escape the almost daily denunciations of columnists posing as priests. Another recent unnecessary “news” story was that Alex Rodriguez passed out while his wife was in labor with their first daughter in 2004. Who cares?

The Washington Post’s Thomas Boswell, revered in the sporting world’s establishment, is among the very worst columnists when he writes about the “scandal,” which is often, but at least last Saturday, upon celebrating the careers of pitchers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, he didn’t touch Clemens’ non-baseball activities. (Boswell, although a snoot of the first order, isn’t dumb: he knows that scores of baseball stars have, ahem, colorful, private lives—just click on the blog “On the DL” to see what I mean—and wisely sticks to the playing field.)

Nonetheless, in plumping Maddux, he begins: “Eventually, your wins, like your sins, will find you out.” He says that “Searching for silver linings in a steroid age is hard work,” and then quotes a self-satisfied Glavine, who won his 300th game last year for the Mets (and also was so horrid in that team’s ’07 September collapse that he escaped back to Atlanta), who said, “We all deserve what we’ve gotten. Maybe people will finally pay attention to [Maddux, Smoltz and himself]. You don’t want to be elevated on somebody else’s mistakes. That’s hard to deal with. I don’t know [Clemens] well... But we have done it right. Hopefully, that will be appreciated more and the three of us will be a better example to kids." A “better example,” sure, at least until some writer digs up embarrassing dirt on the once-imposing Braves battery.

My view, certainly not in the majority, derives from the 1977 public divorce proceedings of Bob and Sara Dylan, which was so ugly—the singer/songwriter was accused of wife-beating—that for a brief time I couldn’t even play Blonde on Blonde. One day, after reading about this muck inRolling Stone, I chucked the magazine out the window into a trashcan and decided that I’d had enough. So, Dylan was a really shitty person (and slugging Sara took it to a new level), but what did that have to do with my appreciation of his music and undeniable influence on popular culture? Nothing really, not if you put sunglasses on and ignored all the celebrity gossip. God only knows what sordid scabs might’ve been picked at had Internet character assassins like Gawker and the like existed back then.

ESPN’s Keith Keown, perhaps trying to curry favor with Clemens/Barry Bonds arch-nemesis Rev. Mike Lupica, was way over the top in his May 5 story about the man once beloved at Yankee Stadium (The Rajah!), as he wondered whether “hubris” or “stupidity” was the root cause of the defiant pitcher’s “destruction.” Hey, I feel bad for Clemens’ four sons too, but is the following gutter prose really necessary? “Through this ongoing yard sale of Clemens’ legacy, personal and professional, one truth shines through: If it was not for his otherworldly ability to throw a baseball, this guy would be standing behind a convenience-store counter, rubbing his gut and betting his co-workers five bucks he could eat a dozen Slim Jims.”

Or maybe Clemens, not demonstrably stupid if a stupendous egomaniac, might’ve wound up as a sportswriter, betting his colleague 100 bucks that the outspoken and very funny Pale Hose manager Ozzie Guillen will duke it out with Chicago Sun-Times moronic columnist Jay Mariotti by Independence Day.

As for this fan, my hobbyhorses are far more pedestrian. Here’s one: If you’re looking for an example of today’s ballplayers distancing themselves not only from the sport’s history but the spectators who shell out enormous sums to see them play, how about all the jewelry, or “bling,” that’s ubiquitous on any MLB diamond. As a Bosox fan, I’m looking forward to seeing rookie Clay Buchholz, barring injury, become an elite pitcher for years to come. He seems that good. Still, while watching a Sox-Tigers game last week, when Buchholz was struggling with his control, I wondered if it wasn’t because his beanpole frame wasn’t weighed down by the five different strands of junk swirling around his neck. He ought to take a tip from teammate Josh Beckett, who wears one necklace (sorry, fellas, but that’s what it is), which appears to be rawhide, perhaps a souvenir from one of his hunting trips. I have no problem with religious athletes wearing a Christian cross, or, in far less cases, a Jewish star, and most of them keep the chain tucked in their shirt.

Likewise, the Sox slugger David Ortiz—who’ll be lucky to still be playing three years from now, considering all those home cookin’ pounds he lugs around—is embarrassingly ostentatious with all the gold he wears. Which is a shame, since Ortiz (like many Hispanic ballplayers) is extraordinarily generous in dispensing large amounts of money in his native Dominican Republic and is a charity workaholic. Unlike, say, the multimillionaire Derek Jeter, whose future monument in the new Yankee Stadium is already being chiseled.

I also don’t particularly care for the fist-pumping theatrics of relievers Joba Chamberlain and Jonathan Papelbon, the admiring home run gazes of Manny Ramirez, the rash of injuries—pinkeye, hangnails, quad strains—that cause players (and nervous managers) to seek refuge in the disabled list, horrible rock songs played between innings at stadiums, premature “curtain calls” and $6 Cokes straining a family’s budget, but you can’t turn back the hands of time. You adjust. However, the media’s salacious junior high school dispatches on the personal lives of athletes—even if they’re wealthy entertainers—is a far worse disgrace than steroids or blow-up dolls in clubhouses.

Who is MLB's Model Franchise?

hunter48 — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 16:01:55 -0000

Hello to all fans of baseball. I am here specifically to find out, in the baseball fans op- inion, which franchise is the poster franchise for Major League Baseball in terms of talent, integrity, and fan treatment. You may select from all 30 MLB clubs. If the MLB was to select one club to represent who they are and what they were about, who would it be? Thank You for your cooperation, and good luck to whomever you may root for!

RLOB, OPS and RS

jscape2000 — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 15:58:27 -0000

I've cross posted this over at Pinstripe Alley.

The Yankee radio announcers, John Sterling and Susan Waldman, are obnoxiously ignorant, and lately they've been ranting about how the Yankees just can't seem to drive any runners in.

Go here for a clearer picture of the chart, sorry about the image quality...

I started off charting % of baserunners scored against team slugging percentage, and I found a nearly direct relationship. This makes perfect sense, right? It takes 3 singles to score a run, 2 doubles, or one homer- so the higher the SLG, the higher the % of runners driven in.

So then the question that matters is how good is the team at getting on base?

By taking the average of %Scored for the last three seasons I solved for x, which is .503 in this sample.

Here's my question: Is this even valid? Am I just using circular logic, proving what I wanted to question? Is there some way to test this?

If I'm right and thinking about this is worthwhile, I feel like it's another way to evaluate the weight of OBP and SLG.

I'd be really grateful to anyone who can suggest tweaks to the equation or the methodology, or who has access to a computer based Baseball Encyclopedia who can run larger samples.

Chicago Cubs music CD question

Jack Pine — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 17:40:06 -0000

Does anyone know anything about a website called TakeMeOutToACubsGame.com ?

A friend of mine was listening to WGN radio yesterday during the Cubs game. Pat Hughes was talking about the CD. My friend said it sounded like there was a CD with new and old Cubs songs (like Go Cubs Go) and some of the announcers singing too?

Besides Take Me Out To A Ballgame, does anyone know of any Cubs or baseball songs sung by announcers?

The Reds are the real deal

wrigleyrocker12 — Sat, 31 May 2008 00:38:54 -0000

Well, what can I say. This team may just be average right now, but in 3-5 years think about it. The Cincinnati Reds will be a good team. As long as Dusty doesn't screw it up.

Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Baily, Brandon Philips, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Jeff Keppinger... the list goes on of this teams young talent. Some of them are already dominating now. Edinson Volquez, the ML leader in ERA, Joey Votto is up there in homers. Jay Bruce has had a nice start so far. Her's a projection of their roster in 3 years.

C-Ryan Hanigan

1B-Joey Votto

2B-Brandon Phillips

SS-Jeff Keppinger

3B-Edwin Encarnacion

RF-Ryan Freel

CF-Jay Bruce

LF-Adam Dunn

1. Edinson Volquez

2. Aaron Harang

3. Johnny Cueto

4. Bronson Arroyo

5. Homer Baily

Wow, that's pretty dang good. What do you guys think of this Reds team?

99 Years in the Desert (63 of them with a Billy Goat)

TwoNateShow — Wed, 28 May 2008 02:21:38 -0000

It would be a night that I would never forget, October 14th, 2003. The night that the Cubs would go to the World Series for the first time in 98 years. As Mike Mordecai flew out to left field for the 1st out of the 8th inning, I couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief, knowing there were only 5 outs remaining to close out the NLCS. Several questions ran through my mind: How many Cubs banners would I place around the office to remind my co-workers which team was in the Fall Classic? Should I wake up my roommate and have a celebratory run to Taco Bell? Did I forget to iron my clothes? And then Luis Castillo popped a Mark Prior pitch foul towards the left field stands...

We all know what happens: Steve Bartman, the name known by all Cubs fans, gained his proverbial "15 minutes of fame" and attempted to catch a ball over the outstretched arms of Moises Alou . Alou misses the catch, the Marlins score 8 runs, and the Cubs wind up losing the Series to the newly energized Marlins. Ask any Cub fan and he or she will tell you that after Game 6 they knew it was over. Ask me, and I'll tell you that night I ironed clothes for 3 hours straight, running through the Castillo pop-foul over and over in my mind. The next playoff appearance would be in 2007 as the Cubs faced the Arizona Diamondbacks, only to lose 3 straight and after the game 3 loss, get swept in front of a sold out crowd at Wrigley Field.

As the 2008 season is already into May, there comes a glimmer of hope for the haven between Clark and Addison. The Cubs put up an 8-2 homestand at Wrigley (the best since the 1970's), and for now, the Cubs are fighting for the division lead. Is there optimism amongst the Cubs faithful? Or is this another "wait 'til next year"? The Cubs' team batting average thus far is .284. The last time they collectively hit this well was in 1945, which ironically, was the last time they were in the World Series. You may be saying to yourself, "now Elwell, the season is too early along for such optimism", but what if this were the year? If the Cubbies were to win the 2008 Fall Classic, it would mark the first time in 100 years since they last accomplished the feat.

In anticipation of a possible World Series win, here are a list of important historical milestones that have taken place since the Cubs last won the World Series:

Number of U.S. Presidents : 18 (Teddy Roosevelt was president during the last Cub's World Series win)

Number of wars (U.S. participated): 8

Number of World Series won by Chicago White Sox: 2

Number of World Series won by St. Louis Cardinals: 10

Number of Cubs managers : 52

Attendance at Wrigley Field: over 125 million fans

Now do you get the picture? A couple of months ago I flew through Chicago O'Hare Airport and had to pay my respect at the Billy Goat Tavern in the airport. I ordered a Polish Sausage (pronounced Saaaaah-Sage) and said a little prayer, hoping that the ghost of William "Billy Goat" Sianis would be hearing this !

Bill James says that "The Next Fernando Valenzuela" is for real

kazanjianm — Thu, 22 May 2008 14:52:40 -0000

Hi folks,

This is a clip of a young man who had a 300/0 strikout walk ratio in the Mexican League......No im kidding. It is actually a funny animation that I made. Forgive me, I just read the disclaimer about the sabermetrics blog..... and I agreed to it. I will also say that i do plan on actively participating in this blog. But this is "me introducing myself"......In all sincerity, I am an absolute baseball nut who is fascinated with the math behind baseball.

The Next Fernando Valenzuela (part 1)

The Next Fernando Valenzuela (part 2)

Thank you for letting me bend the rules a bit!- Merrill Kazanjian

via fc04.deviantart.com

MLB Draft: First Ten Picks

wrigleyrocker12 — Wed, 14 May 2008 22:41:32 -0000

I found a first ten draft picks prediction on mlb trade rumors today . I figured I'd post this and see what you guys think.

1. Rays - Buster Posey, C.
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B.
3. Royals - Eric Hosmer, 1B.
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP.
5. Giants - Tim Beckham, SS.
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C.
7. Reds - Aaron Crow, RHP.
8. White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS.
9. Nationals - Justin Smoak, 1B.
10. Astros - Tanner Scheppers, RHP.

Gagne Removed as Closer

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 11 May 2008 22:44:45 -0000

How big of a mess is the NLC closer ranks right now?

AP:

MILWAUKEE (AP) — The Brewers yanked Eric Gagne from the closer's role on Sunday after the reliever called his latest performance embarrassing and said he didn't feel he deserved to pitch the ninth anymore.

Manager Ned Yost said he read Gagne's comments and will use a closer by committee approach while Gagne takes what Yost called a "mental break."

"He's really pushing himself really, really hard and taking it really, really hard," Yost said. "We'll probably just mix and match, I'm not going to do anything crazy."

Gagne, who signed a $10 million, one-year contract with the Brewers days before the Mitchell Report on performance-enhancing drugs included his name, said after Milwaukee's 5-3 loss on Saturday that he wanted to keep pushing through, but he didn't deserve to close.

"It's mental, I think it's negative thinking that creeps back in your mind," Gagne said Saturday. "It's a matter of going out there and executing your pitches, not thinking results and I'm thinking results. I'm going out there thinking three outs before I can even get one."

Gagne was gone from the clubhouse immediately after Milwaukee's 5-3 win over St. Louis on Sunday, but Yost said he hopes his reliever works his way back into the role.

Welcome to the new Beyond the Box Score and SB Nation

clockwerks — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 04:18:06 -0000

Hey Beyond the Box Score,

Today is the big day. We've switched your community over to the new SB Nation sports blog platform. My name is Trei, and I'm here to help you get adjusted to the new home we've built for you. If you have questions or trouble with the new system, post a comment in this thread and myself or one of the team (lovitt, sixfoot6 or odacrem) will try to point you in the right direction.

Before we begin, I want to let you know that Beyond the Box Score is one of the first blogs in the SB Nation family to make this transition. We still consider this a beta platform, so don't be surprised if you find a few bugs or if everything isn't exactly right yet. We hope you'll take the time to report any problems you encounter at bugreport@sbnation.com.

Please take a few minutes to read about what's new below. But if you just can't wait to jump in, here are some quick things to check out:

Sign up for your SB Nation network account and claim your old blog accounts
Once you're logged in, press your Z key in any thread with new comments
Explore your dashboard and setup your profile
Read the guide to the new FanPost editor
Install the FanShot bookmarklet and post videos to Beyond the Box Score from YouTube or images from Flickr
Click the "Rec" button on posts and comments to help other people find the good stuff.

What Has Changed

SB Nation Network Accounts - the Big Change

Readers across all of our blogs told us they wanted one account to use on every SB Nation blog. To make this work, we're requiring that everyone create a new SB Nation network account. In most cases you should be able to keep your old username, but a few of you may have to choose something new, since every other community in SB Nation will be going through this same transition. We tried to be as fair as possible in deciding who gets to keep which name, using a formula that takes into account length of membership and frequency of activity.

We want to make it as easy as possible for you to participate on all of our blogs, but we don't want to encourage everyone to start visiting rival team blogs and initiating flame wars. To maintain friendly communities we ask that you explicitly join each blog in order to participate. It's a two-click process, but it does means accepting each blog's community guidelines. Just as you join each blog individually, you can be banned on each blog individually.

You can claim old accounts from multiple SB Nation blogs, and your new username will be retroactively attached to all your old comments and diaries. So now you'll be able to access all your writings from your single profile page... like magic.

To get started, click here to claim your old blog accounts and create a new SB Nation network account.

FanPosts (the Section Formerly Known as Diaries)

We changed their name. Why? Because we took this major upgrade as an opportunity to leave behind some vocabulary that never made much sense for a sports blog. SB Nation is the network of, by and for fans, and these are the blog posts we make. So we call them FanPosts. When you're at a bar telling someone to check out your online sports opinions, you don't have to suggest they read your diary.

FanPosts are displayed differently on the homepage - we include your avatar to give more credit for the time you spend writing great posts. The new post editor has a WYSIWYG view that provides easy formatting. It also auto-saves drafts so you don't have to worry about losing your work when you compose a post within the web browser. And you can now associate teams, players and games with your posts: these tools promote your FanPosts on our new team, player and game pages - across the entire network.

The new system does not work like the old diary editor. For example, in HTML mode the new editor doesn't auto-create a new paragraph from two line breaks. But it does offer a whole array of new features. Look for the blinking help button on the right side of the FanPost editor for quick tips, and take a look at our full guide to writing FanPosts on the new platform.

IMPORTANT - if you write your posts in Microsoft Word or some other off-line editor, you will get the most reliable behavior if you cut & paste your post into the HTML view of the FanPost editor. And if you do that, remember to wrap <p></p> tags around each paragraph so your text doesn't run together.

Visual Redesign

This one is probably the most obvious change of all. Like other major websites working to improve readability for their audience, we've adopted a fixed-width layout optimized for the 1024 x 768 resolution used by the majority of Beyond the Box Score and SB Nation network users. Use the switcher below the user menu if you prefer the wider layout designed for 1280 monitors. We've introduced a top navigation bar with quick links into old and new sections of the site. We also polished a few edges, made some things larger, others smaller and moved a few boxes here and there. More changes and adjustments to come.

Search

We've completely replaced the old search engine with a new one. We're excited to make it easier to find old posts and comments, but we've only taken our first pass on the tools we're offering. We're focused on making search even better than what you had before, so please know that we're aware search is missing key features and we're working on it.

What's New

Schedule, Scores, Stats and Roster

Beyond the Box Score now has all the basic information about the sports and hundreds of other teams. During games you'll see a regularly updated line score, and as the season progresses we'll track team stat totals and leaders. This is just our first step, so look for us to publish more detailed and archival stats in the future. The best part about all this sports data is that we've integrated it directly into the blog so. We now have special pages that aggregate all blog posts written about games, players and teams.

Recommending FanPosts

Some writing deserves more attention and more conversation. If you want to bump a FanPost up to the top and keep it there for awhile, just click the 'Rec' link under the body of the post. When a FanPost receives enough recommendations it will make the recommended list.

Auto-refreshing Comments

You no longer need to refresh the page to see new comments. If you're logged in, new comments will automatically appear on the page every few seconds. When you post a comment, the page will not refresh either. If you want to quickly cycle through all the new comments, you can press the C key on your keyboard. Unmark a new comment after you've read it with the X key. And use the Z key if you want to umark comments as you're cycling through them.

As you use these shortcuts to cycle through comments, press the R key to reply to the current comment. All these helpful keyboard shortcuts are listed at the top of each comments section for reference.

Recommending Comments

Now you can reward those folks who take the time to look up stats and make smart arguments in the comments. Next to each comment there is an 'actions' link that you can click to find the recommend and flag options.

Flagging Comments

To help the moderators on a site, we've built-in tools that let you flag comments that are spam, trolling or just plain inappropriate. Only moderators can see those flags.

FanShots

Many members of the community just want to post that one link, video, photo or quote, but don't need a full FanPost. We've got you covered: FanShots let you share YouTube videos, Flickr or PhotoBucket photos, quotes from articles, portions of chat transcripts, top 5 lists and simple links. If it's a video or image we'll put a thumbnail on the homepage when you post it.

For those of you who are experienced internet hunter-gatherers of sports material, install the bookmarklet onto the links bar of your browser and share FanShots with the community from wherever on the web you find that killer quote or photo.

Avatars

Upload an image so folks can see your custom avatar on your profile, your FanPosts, and all your comments.

Network Profiles

Now that we have unified SB Nation network accounts, your profile will be your central hub for all of your activity on any blogs where you are a member.

Network bar

The top bar stays with you on all SB Nation blogs. It's a quick way to login and logout. When you're logged in, you'll see your avatar and screen name which links to your profile. The icon to the right leads to your Dashboard area where you can edit your settings, profile, account details and any FanPosts or FanShots you've published. As we add more blogs to the new SB Nation network, the My Blogs menu will be a handy way to navigate between the blogs you've joined.

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There are plenty more small changes and additions we've made, so please take a careful look around and explore this new system. We appreciate your patience and hope you'll help us improve the new platform for this and all the other SB Nation blogs.

And in case you missed it, you'll want to start by claiming your old blog accounts and creating a new SB Nation network account.

Useful blogs

Tue, 26 Feb 2008 04:05:21 -0000

Link

How good are the Tigers?

em3 — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 20:41:41 -0000

How good are the Detroit Tigers?

Yes, the lineup is great and I don't doubt that they will lead the league in runs. Even before Cabrera, they had a great lineup.

But what about the pitching? The top 3 guys (as per the article linked below) have logged WAAAY too many innings for their ages. I worry about them. The other two guys are Rogers and Robertson - who have issues of their own.

And then there's the bullpen.

Anyway, the poll in the article has 72% of respondents saying they'll win the Central. I find this number a bit high? Are they really that good??

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/21/the-2008-detroit-tigers/

Boras' 2000 A-Rod binder

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 20:07:42 -0000

A-Rod Binder